4月市场剧烈震荡，市场演绎深V行情。月初，在特朗普政府关税政策、美联储利率政策不确定性等外部因素冲击下，市场避险情绪集中释放，上证指数大幅下挫单周暴跌9%。随后政策迅速发力，汇金、央企资金通过申购ETF、回购等方式入场护盘，叠加央行MLF加量续作5000亿元，市场流动性改善，市场快速收复3200点。月中，中国政府强硬的反制措施远超特朗普政府预期，因未获得实质性收益，为促使中国重返谈判，暂停了对多数国家的对等关税，全球贸易紧张情绪有所缓和，市场风险偏好回升，同时政策面释放积极信号，市场对降准降息及财政刺激预期升温，指数企稳回升至3300点。月末，因市场仍对出口有担忧，市场量能持续萎缩，上证指数小幅回落。其中，美容护理、农林牧渔、商贸零售表现较好，分别上涨6.14%、3.38%、1.73%，家用电器、通信、电力设备跌幅较大，分别为-5.66%、-6.69%、-8.23%。

慎独同心观成基金2025年4月点评

本月没有新的合意的公司进入持仓组合，继续研究，慢慢等。

4月份在主要股指期货跌停的当日平仓了全部今年5月份到期的黄金期货合约，大幅增持主要指数的股指期货合约，同时略微增持港股互联网社交平台头部公司和石油开采央企，导致基金总仓位短暂超过110%。当然，指数期货合约并没有持有太久。目前基金已经不再持有任何指数期货合约。

基金持仓公司的一季报都已经公布，我都细细读完，也参加了各种有上市公司高管出席的电话会议。我和书博研究员关于电力行业的讨论仍然激烈但接近有序，这种有序让我的思考框架变得更加简单，更加贴近生意的本质。很满意这种状态。整体而言，没有什么可担心的。短期的业绩波动，好点差点都不影响基金持仓公司长期持有的思考框架。

目前基金整体仓位略超7成，不到三成现金头寸。

五一假期反复学习伯克希尔2025股东大会上巴菲特老先生对于各种问题的回答（之所以反复学习，是我英文水平很一般，又想看原文，所以不得不慢慢来，反复过）。其中关于货币币值的回答，是我关注的焦点，现记录于月报中：

So currency is -- the value ofcurrency is a scary thing. And we don't have any great system for beating thatwe do in this particularJapaneseposition because we expect to hold it for 50 or 100 years or more. And we willbe owning something that's denominated in yen and easily predictable. And we'lljust -- aslong as thecarry on it is right and everything we'll attempt to issueJapanese-denominated liabilities. But that's not because of anything we carryabout in terms of quarterly or annual earnings.

Greg, do you have anything to sayon that?

Greg：I was just going to say thatrelative to the question that there's no question we were fundamentally verycomfortable with investing in the five Japanese companies and recognizing we'reinvesting in yen. The fact we could then borrow in yen was almost just like anice incremental opportunity. But we are very comfortable both with theJapanese companies and with the currency we would ultimately realize, i.e., inthe yen.

Buffett：Yes. We only made, as I referred toearlier, one big currency play, which was connected a little bit with when Iwrote that article for Fortune. And we got long 12 other currencies, as Iremember, only 4 or 5 of them are reallybigcurrencies. But when I say we got long, that means we're short the dollar. And so we held that position for a coupleof years, and we made several billion dollars on it, which was significant tous then still is.

Charlie always felt that if you hadto pick an area outside of stocks in which to invest, and he knew a lot aboutbonds, he knew a lot about real estate, he knew a lot about a lot of things. Buthe said he thought he could make a lot of money out of being in foreigncurrency. But we just -- we've done it once. It's not inconceivable we would doit again, but it's unlikely. But there could be things happen in the UnitedStates that would make us want to own a lot of other currencies.

And I suppose if we made some verylarge investment European country or some -- there might be a situation wherewe would do a lot of financing in their currency. But it‘s not -- it wassomething that just was sort of obvious to do in the Japanese situation wherewe had the ability to borrow yen at very, very low carrying cost. And we feltvery good about the income we’d be receiving from these securities. And we --and if the present condition, which it won‘t, I mean, it never does, butprevail for decades and decades, we would probably keep doing the same sort ofthing. But things change in the world, too. So don’t take that as a prediction.

（网络翻译---也不一定就能真实达意：

所以货币——货币的价值是一件令人担忧的事情。我们在日本的这个特定头寸上也没有什么好的办法来应对，因为我们预计会持有50年、100年甚至更久。而且我们将持有以日元计价且易于预测的资产。只要利差合适，我们就会尝试发行以日元计价的债务。但这并不是因为我们考虑了对季度或年度收益的影响。

格雷格，对此你有什么要说的吗？

格雷格：我只是想说，就这个问题而言，毫无疑问，从根本上来说，我们对投资五家日本公司感到非常放心，并且我们也意识到是在投资日元。我们能够借入日元这一事实，几乎就像是一个很好的额外机会。但我们对这些日本公司以及最终我们将持有的货币（也就是日元）都感到非常放心。

巴菲特：是的。就像我之前提到的，我们只进行过一次重大的货币投资操作，这和我为《财富》杂志写那篇文章有点关系。我记得我们做多了12种其他货币，其中只有4到5种是真正的主要货币。但当我说我们做多时，意味着我们做空了美元。所以我们持有那个头寸几年，并且从中赚了几十亿美元，这在当时对我们来说意义重大，现在依然如此。

查理一直觉得，如果你必须在股票之外选择一个投资领域，他对债券很了解，对房地产也很了解，对很多事情都很了解。但他说他认为投资外币可以赚很多钱。但我们只做过一次这样的投资。我们再次这么做也不是完全不可能，但可能性不大。不过美国可能会发生一些事情，让我们想要持有很多其他货币。

而且我想如果我们在欧洲国家进行一些非常大的投资，或者在其他地方，可能会出现一种情况，我们会用当地货币进行大量融资。但这和日本的情况不一样——在日本的情况下，我们能够以非常非常低的融资成本借入日元，所以那样做（发行日元计价债务）是很明显的选择。而且我们对从这些证券中获得的收益感到很满意。而且如果目前的情况（当然这不会发生，我是说，从来不会一成不变）持续几十年，我们可能会继续做同样的事情。但世界也在变化。所以不要把这当作一种预测。）

最核心的发言点是上述的黄色文字，在我的圈子的讨论中，在网上，歧义不少。

当然，巴老爷子在对于其他问题的回答中，又给我提供了一个长期思考的视角：

Capitalism in the United States hassucceeded like nothing you've ever seen, but what it is, is it's a combinationof this magnificent cathedral which has produced an economy like nothing theworld has ever seen. And then it's got this massive casino attached. So you've got the cathedral and thecasino. And at the casino, everybody is having a good time, and there's lots ofmoney changing hands and everything, but the cathedral is what -- got to makesure the cathedral gets fed, too, because the temptation, and the temptation isvery high now,isto go over to the casino where people say, we've got magic boxes and all kindsof things that will do wonderful things for you. And that's where people arehappiest. That's where you get the most promise to you. That's where the mostmoney is for the people that are pushing things.

And the balance between the casinoand the cathedral -- it's very important that the United States in the next 100years makes sure that the cathedral is not overtaken by the casino becausepeople really like to go to casinos. And it's just so much more fun and theybring bells when you win and they bring you drinks andeverything else. And it's designed to move money from one pocket to another.

And in the cathedral, theybasically are designing things that will be producing goods and services for300-and-some million people like it's never been done before in history. It'san interesting system we developed, but it's worked. It dispenses rewards inwhat seems like a terribly capricious manner. I mean the idea that people getwhat they deserve in life, and it's hard to make that argument. But if youargue with any other system or seem to work better, the answer is we haven'tfound one. So I'll leave it to the nextgeneration to send me the answer by Ouija board or whatever.

（网络翻译：

美国的资本主义取得了前所未有的成功，但实际上，它是一座宏伟的“大教堂”（象征实体经济等）和一个巨大的“赌场”（象征金融投机等）的结合体。“大教堂”创造了世界上从未有过的经济成就。然后还有这个附属的“赌场”。所以有了“大教堂”和“赌场”。在“赌场”里，每个人都玩得很开心，有大量的资金在流转，但“大教堂”才是——也必须要确保“大教堂”得到滋养，因为现在的诱惑非常大，就是人们会被吸引到“赌场”，在那里人们会说，我们有神奇的盒子和各种各样的东西，会为你带来奇妙的结果。而那是人们最开心的地方。在那里你会得到最多的承诺。在那里，推动这些事情的人能赚到最多的钱。

而“赌场”和“大教堂”之间的平衡——美国在未来100年里确保“大教堂”不会被“赌场”所取代是非常重要的，因为人们真的很喜欢去“赌场”。在那里更有趣，当你赢钱的时候会有铃声响起，还会有人给你端来饮料等等。而且它的设计目的就是把钱从一个人的口袋转移到另一个人的口袋。

而在“大教堂”里，人们基本上是在设计一些东西，为三亿多人生产商品和服务，这在历史上是从未有过的。我们发展出的是一个很有趣的体系，而且它确实起作用了。它分配回报的方式似乎非常随意。我的意思是，关于人们在生活中得到应得回报的这种说法，很难站得住脚。但如果你认为有其他更好的体系，答案是我们还没有找到。所以我就把这个问题留给下一代，让他们通过通灵板或其他方式给我答案吧。好的。进入第2个问题环节。）

  这就是我理解的，在长期的维度上，科技进步是平权的，但是资本和现代货币理论的结合，又伴生了“集权”的局面，导致越来越极端的财富集中。如何应对，是个绕不开的必答题。应对不得当，就是2025年开年后我们经历的美股债汇三杀的局面反复出现。我们已身在其中，且行且观察。

慎独同心观成基金经理——侯海峰

2025年5月6日